On January 15, Japan–France vice ministers’ meeting was held.

The two sides confirmed that Japan and France will strengthen bilateral relations in a wide range of fields, including security and defense, and cooperate to maintain and strengthen a free and open international order based on the rule of law. They also exchanged views on regional issues, including the Indo-Pacific and Europe, as well as global cooperation, and agreed to further strengthen ties through bilateral cooperation and discussions in international arena.

On January 12, the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force (JMSDF) confirmed one Russian Vishnya class Intelligence ship (hull number 535) sailing southwest in waters 60km northwest of Yonagunijima Island (Okinawa Prefecture).

From January 13 to 15, this vessel sailed northeast in the contiguous zone from southwest to north of Yonagunijima Island, then sailed through waters including the contiguous zone from north to south of Miyakojima Island (Okinawa Prefecture), and navigated to the Pacific Ocean.

On January 15, Japan–U.S. defense ministerial meeting was held.

The two ministers confirmed that the Japan–U.S. alliance remains unshakable and that both countries are working closely together. In light of the increasingly severe security environment in the Indo-Pacific region, they held frank exchanges of views on concrete measures to further strengthen Japan–U.S. defense cooperation. They also agreed to continue advancing efforts to enhance the deterrence and response capabilities of the Japan–U.S. alliance to address the changing security environment. In particular, they confirmed that, as one of the alliance's top priorities, they would enhance more advanced and practical joint exercises in various locations, especially in the Southwest region, to expand the Japan–U.S. joint presence there.

On January 16, Japan–Italy summit meeting was held.

On this occasion, the two leaders concurred on redefining and elevating Japan–Italy relations as a “Special Strategic Partnership” to further promote bilateral relations in a wide range of fields. They confirmed that they would enhance cooperation in security and defense. They exchanged views on the situation in the Indo-Pacific, including the East and South China Sea, and confirmed their cooperation in realizing a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP). They also shared a common understanding on the importance of an international order based on the rule of law and concurred on further strengthening cooperation in the international arena.

Statistics on Scrambles Conducted Through the Third Quarter of Fiscal Year 2025

The Japan Joint Staff released its statistics on scrambles conducted through the third quarter of FY2025 (April 1 to December 31, 2025). The total number of scrambles during this period was 448. During the same period in FY2024 (April 1 to December 31, 2024), the total number of scrambles was 521. Including estimates, approximately 68% of the scrambles were in response to Chinese aircraft, approximately 29% to Russian aircraft, and approximately 3% to others.

During the same period, cases indicating active operations by Chinese and Russian aircraft were observed, including:
– flights by Russian Tu-95 bombers and fighter aircraft over the Sea of Japan;
– approximately 260 takeoffs and landings by aircraft from a Chinese aircraft carrier in the Pacific Ocean;
– long-range joint flights by Chinese H-6 bombers and Russian Tu-95 bombers;
– transits by Chinese H-6 bombers, fighter aircraft, and other aircraft between Okinawajima Island and Miyakojima Island.

In addition, on December 6, an incident arose in which J-15 fighter aircraft, which launched from a Chinese aircraft carrier, intermittently illuminated with its radar the F-15 fighter aircraft of the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF), which were conducting airspace intrusion countermeasures against the aircraft.

Monthly Statistics on Scrambles（December）

Japan Joint Staff released its monthly statistics on scrambles. In December, JASDF conducted 79 scrambles. The most scrambles are against Chinese aircrafts (53 times). The others were against Russian aircrafts (23 times) and so on.

On January 16, Japan’s foreign minister paid a courtesy call on India’s prime minister.

The minister stated that Japan and India are "natural partners," sharing fundamental values and strategic interests, and that Japan intends to cooperate toward realizing a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) under their robust bilateral relationship. They exchanged candid views on security and other issues, and concurred to elevate Japan–India relations to new heights.

On January 16, Japan–India foreign ministers’ strategic dialogue was held.

Japan’s minister stated that India is an important partner in realizing FOIP and that Japan attaches great importance to cooperation with India. Both Ministers concurred on deepening cooperation, including in security and defense. They also concurred on cooperating to realize a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific,” including through Japan–Australia–India–U.S. (Quad) cooperation. They shared concerns over coercive measures in the region.

It has been recently confirmed that China has begun installing a new structure west of the geographical equidistance line between Japan and China in the East China Sea. It is extremely regrettable that it is pursuing unilateral development there, while the Exclusive Economic Zone and the continental shelf in the East China Sea remain undelimited. Japan’s foreign ministry director-general issued a strong protest to the deputy chief of mission of the Chinese embassy and again strongly urged China to resume negotiations on implementing the June 2008 Agreement, under which the two countries agreed to cooperate on natural resource development in the East China Sea.

China quietly mobilized thousands of fishing boats twice in recent weeks in the East China Sea, forming massive, densely packed formations over 200 miles. Analysis of ship-tracking data by The New York Times showed these maneuvers could not be explained by normal fishing, suggesting China can control large numbers of civilian ships in disputed waters.

During the maneuvers, the boats held steady positions, sometimes obstructing cargo ships. Large gatherings in December and January, weeks apart, indicate they were likely planned drills rather than incidental events.

Experts noted that these fishing boats are likely maritime militia that could cooperate with military operations. In a conflict or crisis, such as over Taiwan, the fleets could be used to enforce blockades, impede or monitor other ships, and even assert territorial claims. The Chinese government has not provided any official explanation regarding these activities.

On January 16, Japan–U.S. vice foreign ministers’ meeting was held.

In light of the current international situation, the two sides exchanged broad views on Japan–U.S. cooperation, particularly in the field of security. They reaffirmed their commitment to working closely together to further strengthen the Japan–U.S. alliance. They welcomed the U.S.–Japan Dialogue on a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) and concurred to promote cooperation in various fields through it, affirming the importance of strengthening networks among like-minded countries under the FOIP vision. In addition to China-related issues, they exchanged views on regional situations and affirmed close Japan–U.S. coordination.

Japan’s vice minister also exchanged views with deputy national security advisor to the president of the United States on the current international situation, including further strengthening Japan–U.S. cooperation.

On January 17, Taiwan’s defense ministry announced that a Chinese reconnaissance drone entered the airspace over Pratas Island in the South China Sea, which Taiwan controls. After Taiwan issued a warning, the drone left four minutes after the violation. The ministry stated that such highly provocative and irresponsible actions seriously undermine regional peace and stability. China’s People’s Liberation Army Southern Theater Command, which oversees the South China Sea, defended the action, arguing it was valid and legal routine flight training.

On January 17, the JMSDF confirmed one Russian Vishnya class Intelligence ship (hull number 535) sailing north in waters 60km southwest of Yonagunijima Island (Okinawa Prefecture).

This vessel subsequently sailed north in the contiguous zone from southwest to northwest of Yonagunijima Island, and, on January 18, sailed east in the contiguous zone north of Miyakojima Island (Okinawa Prefecture). It sailed east through waters between Okinawajima Island and Miyakojima Island, and from January 18 to 19, sailed through waters in the contiguous zone from south to east of Okinawajima Island, and navigated to the Pacific Ocean.

On January 19, meeting between Japan’s senior deputy minister and Canadian assistant deputy minister was held.

Japan’s senior deputy minister stated his intention to cooperate closely towards realizing a "Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)". The two sides concurred to further strengthen bilateral cooperation across various areas. They had a broad exchange of views on regional situations, including the Indo-Pacific. Japan’s senior deputy minister expressed his expectation to strengthen cooperation on priority issues in the Indo-Pacific region.

On January 20, the Chinese military said it had deployed naval and air forces to warn and drive away a Philippine government aircraft that "illegally intruded" into the airspace over Scarborough Shoal, a disputed atoll in the South China Sea. "We urge the Philippine side to immediately stop infringing on China's rights and cease provocations and irresponsible hype," a spokesperson for the military's Southern Theatre Command said.

The Japanese and South Korean governments have begun an arrangement allowing planes of the South Korean Air Force’s aerobatic team to be refueled at a JASDF base, according to government sources. At a summit on January 13, the two countries’ leaders agreed on the strategic importance of their relationship and on enhancing bilateral cooperation. In light of this, the two countries’ defense authorities began full-fledged moves to resume exchanges.

A planned refueling service in November last year was canceled at the last minute after it was found that one of the Black Eagles planes had flown around the Takeshima islets (controlled by South Korea and claimed by Japan). This is the first time such a refueling plan for the South Korean military at a JASDF base has been made public, and if implemented, it is likely to strongly boost defense cooperation between Japan and South Korea.

On January 21, the Japan Joint Staff confirmed two Russian Tu-95 bombers and two Russian fighters flying from the continent over the Sea of Japan. These aircraft then flew east over the Sea of Japan, turned off the coast of Shimane Prefecture, and flew north back toward the continent.

On the same day, the Japan Joint Staff also confirmed two Russian Tu-95 bombers flew again from the continent. These aircraft flew northeast off the coast of Hokkaido Prefecture.

Furthermore, the Japan Joint Staff confirmed two Russian Tu-95 bombers and two Russian fighters flew again from the continent over the Sea of Japan. These aircraft flew southeast over the Sea of Japan, then turned back off the coast of the Noto Peninsula in Ishikawa Prefecture and flew northwest back toward the continent.

The JASDF scrambled fighter jets in response to these Russian aircraft.

On January 21, at a UN General Assembly meeting on Security Council reform, China criticized remarks by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on a Taiwan contingency and a December comment by a senior Japanese official on nuclear armament. It said the remarks “pose a new threat to regional and global peace and security” and that Japan “does not qualify to seek a permanent seat on the Security Council.” Japan rejected the claims as “baseless and regrettable,” stressing its contributions to international peace and prosperity as a peaceful nation.

On January 22, the Philippine foreign minister said that the Philippines, as ASEAN chair, will insist that a long-delayed Code of Conduct with China on the South China Sea explicitly reference the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) as it seeks to complete the document this year. The idea of a code for South China Sea tensions was raised over 20 years ago, but little progress has been made since 2017. The issue remains highly sensitive. Southeast Asian countries want the code grounded in international law, which Beijing is accused of ignoring. She reiterated Manila's position that the code must be legally binding, though she acknowledged it will require "further discussion" among ASEAN member states and China.

On January 22, the Philippine Coast Guard released its annual report on the South China Sea situation for 2025. The report noted a significant increase in activities by Chinese maritime forces, including the China Coast Guard and the Chinese Navy. These activities extend from the area around Scarborough Shoal, under effective Chinese control in the South China Sea, toward the waters near northern Luzon, where the Philippine capital Manila is located. The Philippines expressed strong concern over China’s accelerating maritime expansion.

From January 20 to 21, Japan’s defense minister joined the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos. In a meeting with the Swiss defense minister, both ministers discussed regional affairs and confirmed that the security of the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific is inseparable, agreeing to continue cooperation based on shared values such as a rules-based international order. In a separate meeting with the Dutch defense minister, both ministers agreed to further advance bilateral defense cooperation. In a meeting with the NATO Secretary General, they discussed regional affairs and Japan–NATO cooperation, confirmed the inseparability of Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security, and agreed to further advance defense cooperation in recognition of the strategic importance of Japan–NATO cooperation.

On January 22, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary said at a press conference that the post of consul general in Chongqing, China, remains vacant. While he did not specify the reason, it is believed to be due to the Chinese government’s refusal to grant agrément to Japan’s proposed successor. The vacancy may be part of China’s pressure on Japan over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks regarding a Taiwan contingency.

On January 23, the Japan Joint Staff confirmed one Russian IL-20 intelligence gathering aircraft flying from the continent over the Sea of Japan. This aircraft flew southwest over the Sea of Japan, then turned northwest off the coast of Kyoto Prefecture and flew toward the continent.
The JASDF scrambled fighter jets in response to this Russian aircraft.

On January 20, the JMSDF confirmed one Russian Vishnya class intelligence ship (hull number 535) sailing west in waters 70km east of Okinawajima Island. From January 20 to 23, this vessel loitered in waters including the contiguous zone from east to southeast of Okinawajima Island. From January 23 to 24, it sailed in waters including the contiguous zone from southeast of Okinawajima Island to northwest of Kumejima Island (Okinawa Prefecture). From January 25 to 26, it sailed northeast through the Tsushima Strait and navigated to the Sea of Japan.

On January 24, the JMSDF confirmed one Chinese Dongdiao class intelligence ship (hull number 791) sailing southeast in waters 120km northeast of Miyakojima Island (Okinawa Prefecture). This vessel sailed southeast through waters between Okinawajima Island and Miyakojima Island and navigated to the Pacific Ocean.

On January 26, the Japan Joint Staff confirmed one Russian IL-20 intelligence gathering aircraft flying from the continent through the Sea of Okhotsk toward the Pacific Ocean. The aircraft flew south to the area off the coast of Fukushima Prefecture, then turned back and flew through the Sea of Okhotsk toward the Sea of Japan.
The JASDF scrambled fighter jets in response to this Russian aircraft.

NHK has found, based on AIS data, that Chinese oceanographic research vessels have conducted apparent research activities for extended periods within Japan’s EEZ in the East China Sea, and that such activity has intensified in recent years.

NHK analyzed 98 Chinese oceanographic research vessels navigating the East China Sea and found that, from 2012 to March last year, they stopped, changed course, or made round trips within Japan's EEZ on a total of 956 days. Yearly breakdowns show nearly 100 days annually from 2014 to 2018, peaking at 143 days the year before last, indicating increased activity.

On January 26, the Philippine foreign ministry said it had made “firm representations” to China’s embassy and ambassador in Manila over what it described as an escalation of public exchanges related to disputes in the South China Sea. In recent weeks, the Chinese embassy in Manila has stepped up its public rhetoric, criticising the Philippines’ coast guard spokesperson and lawmakers. In a statement, the Philippine foreign ministry said it backed remarks by Philippine officials as part of their mandate to uphold the country’s sovereignty and sovereign rights, while calling for circumspection in language and actions and sober, professional and respectful public exchanges to avoid unnecessarily derailing diplomatic space to manage maritime tensions.

On January 26, Japan-NATO high-level consultations were held.

During the consultations, the two sides confirmed that the security of Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific is closely linked and that they will continue to cooperate in strengthening the Japan-NATO relationship and NATO-IP4 relationships, and they discussed regional situations in East Asia and Europe.

Since late last year, some Japanese officials have quietly urged fishermen around the Senkaku Islands to avoid the waters to prevent escalating tensions with Beijing, according to the fishermen. Following Prime Minister Takaichi’s remarks on a Taiwan contingency, these requests began in November. Some fishermen and their supporters said they were asked by coast guard officials to cancel or alter planned voyages. On December 19, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama told fishermen in Tokyo that "small incidents can grow bigger and lead to war," which they interpreted as a request to stay away.

The requests mark a sudden shift after years in which Tokyo tacitly allowed such trips, which some fishermen used to assert Japan's control. Warnings illustrate a catch-22: fishing shows Japan’s control but risks a serious confrontation with Chinese vessels, according to fishermen, officials, and security analysts. Some experts noted that if Japan pulled back, China could respond more aggressively, such as by sending more ships, and emphasized the importance of maintaining Japan’s presence.

Fishermen said they remained determined to return despite the risks.

On January 27, Japanese government sources said that Russia, which had already announced military exercises around the Northern Territories starting January 1, added the area around Kunashiri Island to the drills, expanding their scale. Through diplomatic channels, Japan lodged a strong protest, saying that “Russia’s military buildup on the Northern Territories is incompatible with Japan’s position and unacceptable.” Tokyo is keeping a close watch, fearing the activity may intensify.

On January 27, Manila's armed forces said the Philippines and U.S. militaries sailed together earlier this week at the Scarborough Shoal, a disputed area in the South China Sea claimed by the Philippines and China. The 11th such drill between the United States and the Philippines since November 2023 was held as a joint exercise aimed at easing cooperation between the treaty allies. The event showcased Philippine naval and coast guard vessels, two military planes, and a helicopter, while the U.S. deployed a destroyer and a helicopter.

On the same day, China’s Southern Theater Command said it conducted a routine South China Sea patrol from January 25–26, without specifying the location, and accused the Philippines of involving outside countries in “joint patrols,” disrupting regional peace.

On January 26, China's permanent representative to the UN repeated his criticism of Prime Minister Takaichi's remarks on a Taiwan contingency at the Security Council meeting on international rule of law, saying they constitute a brazen intervention in China's internal affairs and an open breach of Japan's obligations as a country defeated in World War Two.

His Japanese counterpart said it is regrettable that the Chinese delegation made groundless statements against Japan, adding, "Since the end of World War Two, Japan has followed the path of a peace-loving nation and contributed to international peace and prosperity based on the rule of law," and that China should engage in accurate discourse contributing to global stability.

On January 26, speaking on a TV program, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi touched on a scenario in which Japan and the United States would coordinate the evacuation of their citizens during a Taiwan contingency, warning, “If the U.S. military, acting jointly [with Japan], comes under attack and Japan does nothing and runs away, the Japan-U.S. alliance will fall apart.” Her remarks were seen as hinting at a potential role for the Self-Defense Forces. Still, she also noted the government would “make a comprehensive decision within the legal framework,” underscoring that any action would depend on the situation.

On January 27, the JMSDF confirmed one Chinese Jangkai II class frigate (hull number 515) sailing southeast in waters 150km northeast of Miyakojima Island (Okinawa Prefecture). This vessel sailed southeast through waters between Okinawajima Island and Miyakojima Island and navigated to the Pacific Ocean.

On January 28, the JMSDF confirmed one Chinese Luyang II class destroyer (hull number 153) sailing southeast in waters 130km northeast of Miyakojima Island. This vessel sailed southeast through waters between Okinawajima Island and Miyakojima Island and navigated to the Pacific Ocean.

On the same day, the JMSDF confirmed one Chinese Luyang III class destroyer (hull number 156) and one Chinese Fuchi class replenishment ship (hull number 890) sailing southeast in waters 140km northeast of Miyakojima Island. These vessels sailed southeast through waters between Okinawajima Island and Miyakojima Island and navigated to the Pacific Ocean.

On January 28, Japan’s vice foreign minister received a courtesy call from the U.S. under secretary of war for policy. Both sides exchanged views on the regional security environment as well as bilateral security and defense cooperation. They concurred on the critical role both countries play to reinforce the Japan-U.S. Alliance capabilities to deter and respond.

On January 28, Japan’s vice defense minister received a courtesy call from the U.S. under secretary of war for policy, and Japan’s vice defense minister for international affairs held a meeting with the under secretary. In the meetings, they discussed increasingly severe security situation in the Indo-Pacific region, and confirmed the critical role both countries play to reinforce the Japan-U.S. Alliance capabilities to deter and respond.

On January 28, Southeast Asia’s top diplomats met under growing pressure to conclude this year’s negotiations with China on a so-called “code of conduct” to manage long-standing territorial disputes in the South China Sea, hoping to prevent the disputes, long seen as a potential flashpoint, from escalating into a major conflict.

Negotiations on the proposed code of conduct have dragged on for more than two decades without major breakthroughs on the most contentious issues, including whether the accord should be legally binding. But the bloc resolved to conclude the negotiations by the end of 2026.

On January 29, senior officials from the foreign ministries of China and the Philippines met and exchanged views on maritime issues, focusing on the South China Sea. Both sides agreed to maintain communication through diplomatic channels, China’s foreign ministry said. Tensions over territorial claims in the South China Sea between the two countries have deepened.