On December 23, the U.S. Department of Defense released its first annual report on Chinese military developments under President Donald Trump’s second term. The report says China’s military is steadily advancing toward its “2027 goals” of achieving a “strategic decisive victory” over Taiwan and a “strategic counterbalance” against the United States. It adds that Beijing is refining military options to force unification with Taiwan, including an amphibious invasion, firepower strikes, and possibly a maritime blockade, with strike ranges of up to about 3,500 kilometers that could seriously challenge U.S. forces in the Asia-Pacific region. 

NHK World 

Reference: Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the 

People’s Republic of China 2025 

On December 26, it was confirmed on the vessel-tracking website MarineTraffic that a cargo ship named “fuck JAPAN” was displayed in waters around the Senkaku Islands (Okinawa Prefecture). 

Automatic Identification System (AIS) data shows the vessel has been anchored north of Uotsuri Island since December 22. According to MarineTraffic, the displayed destination is Zhangzhou City, Fujian Province, China, with a past estimated time of arrival. The date and time are in “Standard Time +8,” the same as Beijing, China. 

A JCG official stated that the vessel in question was never confirmed locally, adding, “It is unclear who falsified the information.” Satellite imagery captured by the European Space Agency's (ESA) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) on December 24 also showed no vessel north of Uotsuri Island. 

MarineTraffic considers this spoofing and is proceeding with procedures to hide it on the site. 

Sankei Shimbun News (Japanese)   

On December 25, a large Chinese commercial facility opened on Woody Island in the Paracel Islands of the South China Sea, where China and Vietnam, among others, dispute sovereignty. 

According to media reports, Woody Island already has numerous facilities, including schools, hospitals, and power plants. The newly opened commercial complex houses restaurants, supermarkets, bookstores, and other businesses. China is promoting the project as “a new daily-life landmark,” aiming to solidify its de facto control. Vietnam and other claimants are expected to protest. 

Yomiuri Shimbun News (Japanese)       

On December 28, according to Japanese government sources, Russia has notified Japan it will conduct new military exercises for two months starting January 1 around the Northern Territories, which it illegally occupies. Russia has repeatedly notified Japan of exercises around the Northern Territories this year. In response to Russia's intensified military activities, Japan has lodged strong protests through diplomatic channels, stating that this “is incompatible with our position,” and is closely monitoring the situation. 

Sankei Shimbun News (Japanese)   

On December 30, JCG officials say four Chinese government vessels were confirmed navigating the contiguous zone just outside Japanese territorial waters off the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. This brought the total in 2025 to a record 356 days, exceeding last year’s 355 and the highest since 2008. The officials also say that as of December 29, they had confirmed 27 cases of Chinese government ships entering Japan’s territorial waters around the Senkakus, down 12 from last year’s 39. 

NHK World  

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) conducted large-scale military exercises, “Justice Mission 2025,” simulating a blockade around Taiwan on December 29–30. The exercises simulated a blockade of Taiwan’s major port cities and the interdiction of Taiwanese energy imports across eight zones surrounding Taiwan’s main island. 

The PRC deployed 14 China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels during the exercises, indicating that the CCG would play an important role in a blockade or quarantine of Taiwan. The CCG would likely interdict non-military vessels to create a veneer of legitimacy under the pretext of “law enforcement.” The exercises also likely rehearsed CCG–PLAN cooperation, as PLAN vessels operated alongside CCG ships. 

Justice Mission 2025 primarily involved assets with significant precision strike, anti-submarine, and anti-surface vessel capabilities and practiced counter-intervention operations to support a PLA blockade of Taiwan. The exercises likely rehearsed only one component of a multi-domain PLA effort to isolate Taiwan. 

The American Enterprise Institute    

Chinese military exercises conducted around Taiwan (Statement by Press Secretary)

The recent military exercises conducted by the Chinese military around Taiwan have increased tensions across the Taiwan Strait, and the Government of Japan has conveyed its concerns to the Chinese side. The Government of Japan consistently expects the Taiwan issue to be resolved peacefully through dialogue. Peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait are important for the international community, and we will continue to monitor developments with strong interest. 

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan    

On January 2, Japan-U.S. summit telephone talk was held. 

The two leaders reaffirmed their commitment to promoting cooperation among like-minded partners, including Japan–U.S.–Republic of Korea (ROK) and a free and open Indo-Pacific (FOIP). 

They exchanged views on the Indo-Pacific region and confirmed close Japan–U.S. cooperation under the current international situation.  

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan     

On December 29, the Japan Joint Staff confirmed that two Chinese H-6 bombers, two J-16 fighters, two Y-9 electronic intelligence aircraft and two additional Chinese fighter aircraft (estimated) flew from the East China Sea to the Pacific Ocean through the area between Okinawajima Island and Miyakojima Island (both in Okinawa Prefecture). These aircraft flew back to the East China Sea through the same area. The Japan Air Self Defense Force (JASDF) scrambled to these aircraft. 

Japan Joint Staff

On December 28, the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force (JMSDF) confirmed one Russian Vishnya class Intelligence ship (hull number 535) sailing northwest in waters 160km east of Miyakojima Island. This vessel sailed northwest through waters between Okinawajima Island and Miyakojima Island and sailed in the contiguous zone of Kumejima Island (Okinawa Prefecture). Subsequently, on December 30, this vessel sailed northeast through the Tsushima Strait and navigated to the Sea of Japan. 

Japan Joint Staff

On December 27, the JMSDF confirmed one Chinese Jangkai II class frigate (hull number 529) sailing southeast in waters 110km northeast of Miyakojima Island. This vessel sailed southeast through waters between Okinawajima Island and Miyakojima Island and navigated to the Pacific Ocean. On December 30, this vessel sailed northwest through the same waters and navigated to the East China Sea. 

Japan Joint Staff

On December 28, the JMSDF confirmed one Chinese Jangkai II class frigate (hull number 548) sailing southeast in waters 130km northeast of Miyakojima Island. This vessel sailed southeast through waters between Okinawajima Island and Miyakojima Island and navigated to the Pacific Ocean. On December 30, this vessel sailed northwest through the same waters and navigated to the East China Sea. 

Japan Joint Staff

On December 30, the JMSDF confirmed one Chinese Luyang II class destroyer (hull number 150) sailing north in waters 80km east of Miyakojima Island.  This vessel sailed northwest through waters between Okinawajima Island and Miyakojima Island and navigated to the East China Sea. 

Japan Joint Staff

On January 5, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for closer cooperation with South Korea on history issues concerning Japan, amid tensions over remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Taiwan, Chinese state media reported. In talks with South Korean  President Lee Jae Myung in Beijing, Xi urged  the two countries to “stand on the right side of history” and to safeguard the outcomes of World War II while promoting peace and stability in Northeast Asia. 

On December 31, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi expressed Beijing’s willingness to work closely with Seoul and warned of what he described as attempts by certain political forces in Japan to whitewash past aggression and colonial rule. 

In December, Lee said South Korea would seek to ease tensions between Japan and China, emphasizing that taking sides would only escalate the conflict. 

Kyodo News    

On January 6, following China’s announcement to strengthen export controls on dual-use items to Japan, a Director-General of Japan’s Foreign Ministry strongly protested to China’s Deputy Chief of Mission and demanded the withdrawal of the measures, stating that targeting Japan alone deviates significantly from international practice and is absolutely unacceptable and deeply regrettable.  

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan   

On January 6, China’s Commerce Ministry announced an immediate ban on exports of dual-use goods to Japan, which can be used for both commercial and military purposes. The move followed Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remark last November on a Taiwan contingency, apparently aimed at increasing economic pressure on Tokyo. According to the ministry, materials for Japanese defense-related users and dual-use items that could enhance defense capabilities are restricted, potentially including semiconductors and rare earths for the Self-Defense Forces and defense equipment manufacturers. On the same day, the ministry’s spokesperson called Takaichi’s remark “erroneous” and said it could constitute unwarranted interference in China’s internal affairs. 

Jiji Press News   

On January 7, the JMSDF confirmed one Russian Vishnya class Intelligence ship (hull number 535) sailing southwest in waters 80km northeast of Tsushima Island (Nagasaki Prefecture). This vessel sailed southwest through the Tsushima Strait and navigated to the East China Sea. 

Japan Joint Staff

On January 8, Japan’s vice foreign minister exchanged views with Chinese Ambassador to Japan, on the current state of Japan-China relations and other matters. On this occasion, vice minister once again strongly protested and demanded the withdrawal of the recent measures to strengthen export controls targeting dual-use items to Japan by China. 

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan

On January 8, Japan’s chief cabinet secretary said China has been confirmed to be developing a new gas field near the Japan-China median line in the East China Sea, with the JCG confirming the presence of a mobile drilling ship west of the line. Japan protested via diplomatic channels and called for the swift resumption of negotiations under a 2008 bilateral agreement on joint development. He said it was “extremely regrettable” that China continues unilateral development despite repeated protests from Japan. 

Jiji Press News     

Reference: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan   

According to Japan’s Defense Ministry, the annual number of Chinese naval vessels transiting Japan’s Osumi Strait off Kagoshima Prefecture ranged from zero to four until 2022, before rising to seven in 2023, 10 in 2024 and hitting a record high of 15 in 2025. Under Japanese law, the territorial waters of the Osumi Strait are narrowed and an international corridor is created in the central part of the strait. As a result, such transits are legal in the international waters of the strait’s central part, and there is no issue under international law with the passage of foreign naval vessels. 

Meanwhile, construction is underway on nearby Mageshima island for a new JASDF base. The base will also be used for the U.S. military’s Field Carrier Landing Practice (FCLP), in which pilots repeatedly practice takeoffs and landings. After the base is completed, radio communications between pilots and the base during FCLP could be intercepted. The increase in transits through the Osumi Strait could force the Defense Ministry to review its warning, surveillance and security posture around Japanese territorial waters. 

Asahi Shimbun News   　 

On January 8, The Wall Street Journal reported that after China announced on January 6 a broad ban on exports to Japan of so-called dual-use goods with potential military applications, it began restricting exports of “heavy” rare earths and related powerful magnets to Japanese companies, citing two Chinese exporters. The paper also quoted an unnamed source familiar with Chinese government decisions as saying that reviews of export licence applications across Japanese industries have been halted, not limited to defence firms. 

Reuters  

China said its export ban on dual-use goods to Japan does not affect civilian-use items, but has not clarified the scope of such goods or export permit procedures, leaving uncertainty. The Chinese Commerce Ministry said the measure aims to prevent Japan’s rearmament and nuclear ambitions, while asserting that China has consistently sought to maintain the stability and security of the global supply chain. Japanese companies are increasingly concerned that the ban could cover rare earths used in products such as automobiles and smartphones, especially as a Global Times editorial suggested it could extend to civilian-use goods. 

Yomiuri Shimbun News    

Chinese customs authorities have tightened inspections of imported Japanese sake and food products, delaying customs clearance, trade sources said. The delays began in November following Prime Minister Takaichi’s remarks on a Taiwan contingency.  

At Tianjin port, the rate of random inspections was raised from the usual 5% to 100%, doubling clearance times to about a month. Similar delays were confirmed at Shanghai port, possibly due to additional documentation requirements or stalled inspection procedures. The move appears aimed at intensifying economic pressure on Japan.  

Yomiuri Shimbun News        

China's foreign minister visited several African countries up to January 12, holding successive meetings with leaders. Each country confirmed its support for the “One China” principle, which regards Taiwan as an inalienable part of China. In response to Prime Minister Takaichi’s remarks on a Taiwan contingency, China has intensified a global campaign to secure backing for its stance, strengthening its diplomatic push in Africa. 

According to China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Lesotho—all visited by the Foreign Minister—expressed their support for China’s stance on Taiwan, a core Chinese interest, and affirmed their backing for “all efforts by the Chinese government to achieve national reunification.” The Foreign Minister also held a phone call with Somalia’s Foreign Minister, during which China mentioned Somaliland, which has declared independence, and opposed “attempts by Somaliland to pursue independence in coordination with the Taiwanese authorities.” Taiwan regards Somaliland as an independent state.  

Nikkei Shimbun News (Japanese)  

On January 12, Japan’s Defense Minister visited Hawaii. 

He met with the Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and they candidly exchanged views on the security environment and bilateral defense cooperation, confirming they will continue to strengthen the Alliance’s deterrence and response capabilities. 

The same day, he met with the Commander of U.S. Forces Korea, Combined Forces Command, and United Nations Command, affirming the importance of further strengthening Japan-U.S.-ROK defense cooperation for peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific. 

He also paid a courtesy call on the President of Palau, confirming closer collaboration for regional peace and stability. 

Finally, at the Honolulu Defense Forum, he delivered a keynote speech emphasizing Japan’s resolve to play a leading role in promoting regional peace and stability amid shared challenges. 

Ministry of Defense of Japan  

On January 13, Shimane Prefecture announced it had acquired 71 items, including an Edo-period map of Takeshima and related historical documents. The materials include 69 documents from the Murakawa family, who fished near Takeshima in the 17th century with Edo Shogunate permission, and two 17th-century items, including Matsushima no Zu, possibly one of the earliest detailed maps of Takeshima. Along with previous materials, more than 600 items have been newly made available on the prefecture’s website, with experts noting that they demonstrate Japan had an accurate understanding of Takeshima at the time. 

Kyodo News (Japanese)    

On January 14, according to the JCG, four vessels of the China Coast Guard successively entered Japan’s territorial waters off Uotsuri Island in the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture. After navigating for about two hours, all four vessels left the territorial waters. This was the first confirmed incursion by China Coast Guard vessels into Japan’s territorial waters off the Senkaku Islands since the 10th of last month, and the first such incident this year. 

NHK News (Japanese)    

On January 15, Japan-Philippines Foreign Ministers’ Meeting was held. 

Japan’s minister stated that, amid a deteriorating regional strategic environment, the importance of a rules-based Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) has increased, and that Japan seeks to deepen cooperation with the Philippines, which is indispensable to the realization of a FOIP, in addressing international challenges. 

He explained Japan’s view on the Indo-Pacific situation. The two ministers shared serious concerns over unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion in the East and South China Seas and agreed to continue close cooperation. They also confirmed the strategic importance of strengthening Japan–US–Philippines trilateral cooperation and U.S. engagement in the Indo-Pacific, including concrete cooperation in maritime security. 

On the same day, Japan and the Philippines signed an Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA). The agreement will facilitate the smooth provision of supplies and services between the Japan Self-Defense Forces and the Armed Forces of the Philippines, promote closer cooperation, and enable both sides to contribute more actively to international peace and security. 

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan      

(Foreign Ministers’ Meeting):    

(ACSA):