US-Japan-China Trilateral Security Dialogue, Public Forum Report
On 10 November 2003, members of the Tokyo diplomatic, academic and press communities gathered to attend a public forum that summed up the main issues that were addressed in the preceding dialogue, Toward a stronger foundation for United States, Japan and China Relations, which was hosted by the Research Institute for Peace and Security in collaboration with Pacific Forum, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR).
The forum was coordinated by RIPS president, Akio Watanabe, and the panel was comprised of Yang Bojiang (Director, Division for Northeast Asian Studies China Institute of Contemporary International Relations), Ralph A. Cossa (President, Pacific Forum CSIS) and Seiichiro Takagi (Professor, Aoyama Gakuin University).
The first panel speaker, Yang Bojiang, recognized the issues of consensus that were identified throughout the two-day conference. These include the necessity of deepened dialogue and the need to explore more areas for potential cooperation. He identified energy proposals in East Asia, the new order in East Asia and multilateral security cooperation in Northeast Asia along with regional economic integration as specific areas for future cooperation between the three states. While some misunderstanding and mistrust are still present, the willingness to be deeply engaged in the partnership and the accompanying aversion that each of the states has to becoming isolated in the trilateral relationship is another commonality that exists within the triangle.
In order to address the matters of discord within the relationship, Professor Yang makes recommendations for each leg of the triangle. He suggests that Japan make revisions to its constitutional interpretation more understandable to its neighboring countries and develop a more diplomatically active strategy, in particularly vis-a-vis North Korea. The United States should collaborate closely with China in order to create more opportunities for Japan to contribute to international society, not only militarily, but in a constructive diplomatic and economic way. Finally,China must focus on its domestic and diplomatic tasks. He notes that it will not be easy for China, as an ascending power, to adopt peaceful interdependent regional relations with its neighboring countries but stresses that China will make a concerted effort to adopt a strategy of peaceful and harmonious ascendancy.
Ralph Cossa, a participant of the dialogue for the past 7 years, was able to provide an expansive perspective of the evolution of recent US-China-Japan relations. He observed that the partnership, especially the US-China link, has weathered some contentious storms, which arose from issues such as the Belgrade bombing, the EP3 incident and “Japan passing”, and is now in a period of unprecedented affability. Yet there are still areas that need improvement. While both China andJapan appear unthreatened by each other's good relations with the United States, it is evident that China-Japan relations are lagging behind the other legs of the triangle. It is therefore imperative for all three parties to make a determined effort to reinforce this partnership.
It was noted that this year's dialogue projected a particularly positive tone. Remarkably, there was no mention of a “China threat” and no intensive debate over Chinese military buildups and missile defence, topics that have been evident in previous dialogues, although this does not indicate that these matters are no longer of concern. Instead, there was a more positive focus on China's constructive role in Asian politics. Similarly, an optimistic approach was taken toward US involvement in Asia. While there has been a great deal of concern about US Global politics, especially apparent in the Middle East, there was no overall fixation on the issue of US ‘unilateralism’ in the trilateral dialogue. Ralph Cossa attributes this to improved US-East Asia relations in combination with the development of a multilateral approach with reference to North Korea.
Mr. Cossa outlined three major international developments that have facilitated the positive state of US-Japan-China relations. The common concerns over terrorism and proliferation on the Korean Peninsular have facilitated setting differences aside and increased multilateral cooperation between the three governments on initiatives addressing both global proliferation and regional security. The level of cooperation has exceeded all expectations and therefore raised the level of confidence for future cooperation. Another common denominator which has the potential to bear greater cooperation between the United States, Japan and China is their respective strengthened relations with Southeast Asia. The United States’ cooperation with Southeast Asia has improved with the use of ‘the second front’ in the ‘war against terrorism’ as a vehicle to enhance US relations with ASEAN. China's strengthened relations with ASEAN are manifest in the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC). The Japan and ASEAN summit to be held in Japan in December of this year is a sign of greater 10+1 cooperation on that front. However, whether these developments will result in a zero-sum game between the governments or a Sino-Japanese competition within ASEAN remains to be seen.
In addition to the aforementioned points, Seiichiro Takagi who was also a participant of the dialogue for the past 7 years and became a co-dinator of Japanese group this round, put forward 3 caveats with respect to trilateal relations. Firstly, he stressed the need to effectively manage the increasingly deeper society-to-society links. This was clearly illustrated by a recent incident at a university in western China where an allegedly obscene skit performed by Japanese exchange students sparked protests by thousands of Chinese students. He suggested that the dialogue can be used as a channel for better management of such misunderstandings. Secondly, Professor Takagi also warned against becoming caught in rhetorical obstacles and overestimating Japan's international contributions. While Japan's recent contributions are important domestic developments, in terms of international cooperation, they can be considered mere ‘drops in a bucket’. Finally, he emphasized that while nationalism can be a destructive element, the US, Japan and China should focus attention on constructively harnessing such sentiment and offered the 2002 FIFA World Cup, co-hosted by Japan and South Korea, as an instructive example.
Yet another positive feature unique from previous dialogues was the inclusion of a ‘Young Leaders’ delegation. The participation of young academics in the field of security studies provided the experienced participants with a fresh perspective on US-Japan-China relations and also afforded the students with an exceptional opportunity to experience first-hand the workings of a track II dialogue. As Professor Takagi observed, the bad news is that even among the Young Leaders, old issues and tensions between the three sides were still evident but on the other hand, the young delegates were praised for their striking ability to deal with these issues in a calm and productive manner - a good sign for future prospects of the trilateral cooperation.
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